Oct 06, 2024
HONOLULU (KHON2) - The forecast remains on track for Sunday with the low aloft shifting southward and eventually settling over the central islands. This will allow for further destabilization over the rest of the state. Thus expect inversion heights to increase around Maui County and the Big Island allowing for enhanced clouds and showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds are expected to remain light enough for leeward seabreezes to develop in the afternoon, and could provide enough lift to produce a showers along leeward and inland areas as well as a slight chance of thunderstorms. As we head into the evening hours expect more a trade wind pattern to take over as land breezes develop and likely chances of heavier showers to shift more towards windward areas during the overnight and early Monday morning hours. The caveat to the forecast, is the lack of a deep moist profile that will allow for more widespread showers and convection. Therefore, although there should be sufficient moisture for a few heavier showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, the amount of moisture and dry layer between 700 and 500mb maybe the limiting factor. Models still show trade winds gradually increasing as early as late Sunday into early next week as a new high pressure to the distant northwest builds eastward. Instability may linger through Monday, but generally, increasingly stable trade wind conditions should return by Tuesday and persist through much of next week as the upper low weakens into a broad trough and shifts east of the state. With the return of a more typical trade wind pattern, expect clouds and showers to favor primarily windward and mauka areas.
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