Oct 02, 2024
BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) -- The tropical Atlantic remains active over the beginning of October with two storms in the open Atlantic and another area to watch for potential development in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Kirk is forecasted to become the next major hurricane with Tropical Depression Thirteen to its east which is forecasted to also become a hurricane itself soon and obtain the name Leslie. Tropical development may be possible in the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend which is likely to bring heavy rain to a portion of the Gulf Coast. As of now, there is no immediate tropical threat for Louisiana. However, it is a good idea along with the rest of the Gulf Coast to continue to monitor the forecast for updates. Whatever may or may not become of tropical development in the Gulf, our rain chances for Baton Rouge and southeast Louisiana will increase over the end of the week. Gulf of Mexico Currently, there are disorganized showers and storms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean with a broad area of lower pressure. These two areas of disturbed weather will slowly work northward into the Gulf of Mexico bringing with it high tropical moisture. Hurricanes like Helene are deadly when they strike and keep killing for years to come By the end of the week, a singular area of low pressure may attempt to form and a tropical depression could be possible into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving the area a 0% chance for development over the next two days and a medium chance (40%) over the next seven days. Regardless of development, tropical moisture will surge northward and may creep into the Northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. This will help increase rain chances for Louisiana. However, there is some question on how far inland rain can spread. As a result, the best chance for rain will be towards the coast. Current model guidance hints that whatever attempts to develop in the Gulf may meander for a bit thanks to a cold front working into the northern Gulf and stalling. It could then slowly work its way eastwards increasing the likelihood of heavier rains for the Florida Peninsula into next week. This front would also shield Louisiana from any northward-moving tropical system, but the timing of it will need to be fine-tuned. Hurricane Kirk Hurricane Kirk has been steadily strengthening over the past day and will continue to do so over warm waters in a low-shear environment with deep moisture to work with. The storm is forecasted to become the next major hurricane with peak Category 4 winds of 130 mph by Friday. A whopping 40 trillion gallons of rain fell on the South thanks to Helene and other storms Thankfully, Kirk will be recurving up and over open waters around a ridge of high pressure to its east which means that what will likely be a powerful hurricane soon will not impact land. Tropical Depression Thirteen Former Invest 91L is better organized with a center of circulation Wednesday morning to now be the newest tropical depression. This system will track to the west over the central Atlantic generally following Kirk. It will have warm water and a low shear environment which will promote intensification over the next few days. The forecast by the NHC calls for the name Leslie to be designated soon with a hurricane by Saturday. The storm will then curve to the northeast likely remaining over open Atlantic waters. Latest News Louisiana Walmart stores get special shopping carts for kids, adults with disabilities 'The Price is Right Live' to return to Baton Rouge: See when, where to buy tickets Disaster recovery center to open in Assumption Parish, help Hurricane Francine victims Shoppers are panic-buying toilet paper amid port strike, but experts say there’s no need Construction for new library at LSU set to begin in 2026, old one to be demolished
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