Gulf development possible but a lot of uncertainty
Sep 30, 2024
NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — We will continue to watch the Caribbean and the Gulf through the first week of October. The NHC is once again highlighting these areas with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. This is down slightly from the weekend. Right now there are no signs of any pending development. It looks like we will see moisture increase over the Gulf through the week with a broad area of lower pressure developing.
Moisture will continue to move north through the week and increase rain chances to our area by Thursday and Friday. Look for scattered showers with the heaviest activity along the coast. By the weekend it's possible we see some development of a tropical system in the Gulf. That's not a guarantee at the moment though so it will be a wait and see through the week.
There is a cluster of clouds and storms just west of Cuba that will need to be watched as well. That is not the exact system that is currently highlighted by the NHC but it's in the area. As always this time of year any area of storms that lingers long enough in the Gulf could develop into a low pressure area.
Right now it looks like the Gulf becomes more active but in a disorganized fashion through the week. Whether or not a tropical system develops out of that is yet to be seen. Anything that does develop would likely be on the weaker side of things, but as always stay alert to conditions and be prepared.
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