Sep 29, 2024
BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — Even as we near the end of September, the climatological peak of hurricane season, the tropical Atlantic remains very active as we have plenty of season left to go. There are currently three storms in the Atlantic with two other areas to watch for potential development. Tropical Storm Isaac and Tropical Depression Joyce remain over open waters while Tropical Depression Twelve was just designated Sunday afternoon and will likely become Kirk, the next named storm. There is another area to closely monitor in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico through this week. There is no immediate threat to Louisiana; however, there is a chance that a system could affect somewhere along the Gulf Coast in about a weeks time, so we need to keep up to date with forecasts. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is highlighting an area in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development. There is a rather broad area of lower pressure in the area and some gradual development is possible. A tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as it moves west-northwest into the Gulf by the latter half of the week. From there, a large amount of uncertainty exists on any potential track or intensity of a system. Model guidance continues to have a large range of solutions and that will persist until an actual defined center forms, if one even does. It is important to not get hung up on individual model runs that you may see at this large of a lead time and stick to the official forecasts. The NHC currently has a 0% chance of development over the next two days and a medium chance (50%) over the next seven days. Interests all along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor the forecasts as we head through the week. Tropical Storm Isaac Tropical Storm Isaac once peaked as a category 2 hurricane before a weakening trend took over. It is located in the central northern Atlantic and will continue to move to the northeast heading over cooler waters and increased wind shear, which will weaken the system further as it remains over open water. The storm is not expected to be a threat to land. Tropical Depression Joyce Joyce continues to battle hostile conditions as it has weakened to a tropical depression moving to the north. The system will weaken more and eventually dissipate by mid-week over open waters. Tropical Depression Twelve Invest 90L, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, has become more organized with a defined center of circulation present to become a tropical depression. It will move into favorable conditions attaining the name Kirk soon with strengthening to a major hurricane forecasted by the week's end. Its motion will be to the west then northwest, thankfully staying over open waters over the next week. Eastern Atlantic A tropical wave that has moved just off the African Coast in the low latitudes may see the chance for gradual development with a tropical depression possible by mid-week as it moves west-northwest in the eastern Atlantic. There is currently a medium chance (50%) of development over the next seven days.
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