Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images Our Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks preview and prediction is here! It’s On Paper, Week 4. Before their Week 5 bye, the Detroit Lions have a huge game heading into the break. The Seattle Seahawks are in town for a big “Monday Night Football” matchup, and they’re hoping to keep their undefeated season alive. By many measures, this will be the Lions’ biggest test to date. But for the Seahawks, this will undeniably be the toughest opponent they’ve had in this young season. So which team has the advantage “On Paper”? Let’s take a look in our Lions vs. Seahawks Week 4 preview and prediction. Reminder: We’re focusing only on 2024 data now, so everything you see will be from this season, unless otherwise stated. Additionally, DVOA numbers are not yet defense-adjusted—meaning they’re just basic efficiency rankings for now. Next week, they will include adjustments by strength of opponent. Lions pass offense (20th) vs. Seahawks pass defense (1st) It hasn’t been a great start to the year for the Lions’ pass offense considering they’ve had top-10 units in each of the past two seasons. Last week was certainly a step in the right direction, but Arizona’s pass defense is also pretty sketchy. Overall, here’s a look at some of their efficiency metrics and rankings through three weeks: 80.0 passer rating (23rd) 6.9 yards per attempt (22nd) -0.09 EPA/pass (20th) 47.0% success rate per dropback (14th) In other words, they’ve been below average in just about every metric. The reasoning behind that isn’t overtly clear. As we pointed out last week, Jared Goff’s play in a clean pocket has been a big culprit, but that improved drastically against the Cardinals: Last week, I pointed to Jared Goff's struggles with a clean pocket as the culprit for the team's offensive struggles. Said it was so uncharacteristic of Goff that I wasn't worried. vs. AZ with no pressure (per NFL Pro) 16-of-19 for 184 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 120.2 passer rating— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) September 23, 2024 Still, Goff needs to be much better than he has been. His 51.9 PFF grade is currently 30th out of 35 quarterbacks. Perhaps most concerning is his 4.2 turnover worthy plays percentage, which is tied for 11th worst with.... Bryce Young. The only time Goff has ever had a percentage that high is in his rookie season (4.7%) back in 2016. Quite simply, he needs to take care of the ball better. Pass protection hasn’t lived up to Detroit’s lofty standards, but it is still among the best in the NFL. They’ve only allowed four sacks (t-fourth), 35 pressures (16th), and rank seventh in PFF pass blocking grade (72.8) and sixth in ESPN’s pass block win rate. With no Frank Ragnow this week, it will be a tougher challenge to protect Goff against a solid Seahawks pass rush, but Graham Glasgow is a more-than-capable center replacement. Before you pass too much judgement on the Seahawks’ statistically awesome pass defense, just look at the opponent’s season QB rating. Not one above 80. They’ve faced Bo Nix in his first career start, Jacoby Brissett behind the worst offensive line in football, and a combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle. Now, the Seahawks have dominated all three of them and we can’t discount that completely, but this is why we do On Paper the way we do: context matters. Still, here are some eye-popping stats from this defense that are worth considering: First in PFF coverage grade (89.9) Third in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (56%) Second in passer rating allowed (67.0) T-fifth in QB pressures (46) T-fifth in sacks (11) First in EPA/pass (-0.45) First in dropback success rate (33.9%) What seems pretty undeniable about this defense is their talent in the secondary. It features highly drafted talent (CB Devon Witherspoon), mid-round selections who have been developed in Seattle (CB Riq Woolen, CB Tre Brown), and a free agency safety duo that is playing out of their mind right now. Julian Love is PFF’s No. 1 safety right now (90.6) and Rayshawn Jenkins is 10th (81.0). The pass rush aspect of their defense is a little tough to figure out right now. They don’t blitz much (26th in blitz rate), but their ability to simulate pressure has caused bad quarterbacks to get confused. This particular week, though, they could be less lethal than normal. In their first injury report of the week, Boye Mafe, Byron Murphy, and Leonard Williams all did not practice. That’s kind of a big deal: The Seattle Seahawks have THREE players in the Top 15 in the NFL in Pressure Rate %. #13 Leonard Williams - 18%#12 Derick Hall - 18.2%#4 Boye Mafe - 21%[via @The33rdTeamFB] pic.twitter.com/m4xvAu3Z7J— Seattle ON Tap (@SeattleONTap) September 26, 2024 Player to watch: Devon Witherspoon vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. Witherspoon plays on the outside in base defense, but typically kicks inside when the Seahawks go nickel. That could mean these two are going to be matchup up nearly 100 percent of the time. So far this season, Witherspoon has earned a 67.0 PFF coverage grade, and allowed just 10-of-15 receptions for only 71 yards and a pass breakup. Advantage: Seahawks +1. While I think Detroit’s slow start will eventually get ironed out, this is a tough week to make it happen—particularly without Ragnow, who would be a huge asset in sniffing out hidden pressure packages. That said, the injuries on the Seahawks defense could give Goff time, and he is typically deadly with time. Yes, you have to factor in the Seahawks’ strength of opponent, but that’s why this advantage is just +1. Lions run offense (3rd) vs. Seahawks run defense (3rd) While the Lions have played some bad run defenses thus far, they’ve been meeting or outdoing those averages for most of the season. Thus far, there are no indications that Detroit’s run defense is any less dominant than it has been for the past couple years. Statistically, the Lions rank eighth in yards per carry (4.8), fourth in EPA per rush (+0.11), fourth in success rate (52.5%), and fifth in rushes of 10+ yards (13). What makes Detroit’s rushing attack so lethal is that they don’t just have one of the best offensive lines in football (fourth in PFF run blocking, second in adjusted line yards), but their two running backs also create a ton of yardage on their own. Both Jahmyr Gibbs (2.7, eighth) and David Montgomery (2.6, 11th) are amongst the best in yards after contact per rush. I’m not sure I’m buying the Seahawks’ DVOA ranking in this matchup. I watched the Patriots game, and the Seahawks were absolutely run over in that game. Even the Dolphins had some success last week, but eventually had to abandon the run. In fact, other advanced statistics don’t paint nearly as clean of a picture for the Seahawks run defense. They rank 17th in EPA/rush (-0.05), 14th in yards per carry (4.4), 12th in stuffed percentage (17.7%), and 11th in success rate. Based on everything I’ve seen outside of DVOA, I consider this closer to an average run defense than a top-10 unit. If Leonard Williams is out, that’s a huge blow to the run defense, as his 75.8 run defense grade is sixth best among interior defenders. Player to watch: Boye Mafe. Though he didn’t practice Thursday and is known more for his pass rush, Mafe has also been a stellar run defender. He lines up on both sides of the line, so Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell have their hands full. Advantage: Lions +2. The only rushing attack the Seahawks have faced on Detroit’s level is the Patriots, and New England ran all over them. With Seattle beat up on the defensive front, I fully expect the Lions to run it a lot and see a modicum of success. I’m holding back the advantage a little here simply because of Ragnow’s injury. Seahawks pass offense (8th) vs. Lions pass defense (10th) This is another case where you have to heavily consider the opponents the Seahawks have played. By DVOA metrics, the Seahawks have faced the 20th, 25th and 28th ranked pass defenses. And while they’ve outgained the yardage averages, they actually haven’t outgained the opponent’s QB rating allowed average for the season once yet. Still, it’s hard not to be impressed by this passing attack, particularly the weapons they have. DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett may make up the best WR trio in the NFL. They have three 100-yard games between them already (JSN has one, Metcalf has two), and Lockett continues to be Geno Smith’s security blanket on key downs, as 10 of his 13 catches have earned first downs. Overall, Seattle ranks 11th in yards per attempt (6.7), 15th in passer rating (93.8), 15th in EPA per pass (-0.02), and seventh in success rate (52.0%). So I don’t quite think the Seahawks passing attack is quite as high as the DVOA suggests, but they are definitely an above average unit. What’s holding them back? Pass protection. They’ve given up the 11th-most pressures (40), rank 29th in pass blocking grade (53.2) and 31st in pass block win rate (38%). Smith has done a great job at sack avoidance, but his accuracy has undoubtedly been affected by the pressure, completing just 58.8% of his passes under pressure compared to 82.6% when kept clean. They’re particularly vulnerable at the guard positions where Laken Tomlinson (45.1 PFF pass blocking grade) and Anthony Bradford (39.6) have given up a collective 17 pressures and three sacks. Of course, they’re also on their third string right tackle. Stone Forsythe has allowed eight pressures of his own, but just one sack. Detroit’s pass defense has done an excellent job through three games, surpassing even the highest expectations for this new group. The success has been two-fold, with both QB pressure and coverage pitching in to create a strong unit. Thus far, the Lions rank 15th in yards per attempt (5.9), 15th in EPA per attempt (-0.10), 10th in passer rating (83.3), and 22nd in success rate (48.8%). Okay, maybe that wasn’t all that convincing. But look at the strength of opponent. Where the Seahawks haven’t faced a single QB with a passer rating above 80, the Lions haven’t faced one who is below 90—and they’ve held all of them significantly below their averages. There are some more telling statistics, too. Detroit ranks t-seventh in passes defended (15), t-eighth in QB hits (21), third in pass rush grade (81.3) and seventh in pass rush win rate (seventh). There are still some questions about the secondary (20th in coverage grade), but last week against the Cardinals was a huge step in the right direction, completely shutting down what had been an explosive passing attack. Player to watch: WRs vs. CBs. I’m cheating a little bit here, because while the Lions did have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 2, I think this will be the biggest test for Detroit’s defensive backs. Both Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis have been up and down in coverage, so they’ll have to be at their best. Advantage: Draw. Because the Lions can actually bring some consistent pressure against a weak Seahawks offensive line, I think that could mitigate some of the mismatches in the secondary. If Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill continue to cause havoc, it will make Smith’s job hard. But I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Seahawks hit on a couple of explosives, even though Detroit has done a good job thus far limiting those. Seahawks run offense (8th) vs. Lions run defense (4th) Again, I’m not quite seeing eye-to-eye with DVOA rankings here. For the season, the Seahawks are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry (25th), while ranking 20th in EPA per run (-0.07), 27th in stuffed percentage (20.0%), and 29th in success rate. Nothing I can find suggests this is even close to a top-10 rushing attack. The same offensive line struggles in the passing game appear in the run game, as well. While they rank ninth in run blocking grade (71.3), ESPN has them 31st in run block win rate and they rank 20th in adjusted line yards. That said, they do sport a pair of talented running backs, and it appears their best—Kenneth Walker—will return after missing the last two games (Seattle’s least efficient rushing games). Last year, Walker finished eighth in broken tackles (22), and he’s already produced two in his first game. Same story as always with the Lions run defense. They remain a top-10 unit and are pushing the top five. They rank fourth in YPC (3.6), fourth in EPA/run (-0.19), ninth in stuffed percentage (18.8%), and ninth in success rate (36.1%). If you’re a running back, chances are you’re gonna have a bad time against this Lions defense: RBs vs. Lions defense through 3 weeks: 50 carries, 138 yards, 2.76 YPC— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) September 23, 2024 Player to watch: DJ Reader. We haven’t said much about Reader through his first two games, but going up against a vulnerable interior offensive line could change that. He’s still posting a solid 73.3 run defense grade through two games, so there aren’t any signs of slowing down. Advantage: Lions +2.5. I think this is the biggest advantage in the game, and the only reason it’s not more is because I’m afraid I’m missing something with the DVOA rankings and Geno Smith is also a threat. But at 33 years old, Smith isn’t even looking to run much anymore. If he’s escaping the pocket—which he will—he’s looking to throw. He has just 36 rushing yards so far this year, and 34 came on a single run. Last week’s prediction: On Paper moved back into the win column last week, although I predicted the Cardinals to cover. That moves me to 2-1 straight up, and 1-2 against the spread. Looking over last week’s preview, I significantly underestimated Detroit’s run defense, giving the Cardinals the edge in that matchup. I also gave the Cardinals the edge in passing the ball, and that probably ended up closer to even or in Detroit’s advantage. In the comment section, barely anyone saw this being such a low-scoring affair (20-13 Lions), but msivits nearly hit the nail on the head with their 20-16 prediction. Not only that, but their entire comment was on point: Should be low scoring, if DC has his head right he’s going to run the hell out of the football Here is your prize: The Lions have exorcised many a curse under Dan Campbell, but they could use more lifted. So enjoy this Seahawks specialized curse-lifting tub of whiskey. We’ve already done you the courtesy of throwing in some of the worst Seahawks memories in there. This week’s prediction: The Lions come out with a +3.5 advantage. My overall confidence level doesn’t quite reach that level of advantage, simply because I have questions about the passing game on both sides of the ball. That said, Detroit appears to have an advantage in the trenches when the defense is on the field, and they probably have the advantage when the offense is on the field, too. Oftentimes, that’s enough for me. That said, I expect the low-scoring affairs to continue with Detroit. Lions 23, Seahawks 17.