Get an insider’s look into what’s happening in and around the halls of power with expert reporting, analysis and insight from the editors and reporters of Montana Free Press. Sign up to get the free Capitolized newsletter delivered to your inbox every Thursday.September 27, 2024NEW NEIGHBORS MORE RED THAN BLUEAs Montana’s population more than doubled over the last 40 years, the number of registered voters increased 175% according to state election voter data.Those new voters are more often Republican than Democratic, according to the data service L2, which sells information about constituents, voters, and consumers.From October 2008 through May 2024, for every two Democrats moving to Montana, slightly more than three Republicans did the same. That’s the ratio supported by L2 data indicating that during that period 13,527 voters identifiable as Republicans relocated from other states to Big Sky County, while identifiable Democratic newcomers numbered 8,548. Another 12,953 newcomers were identifiable as nonpartisan.The key word in the findings is “identifiable.” There are seven other states that, like Montana, collect no party information on voters, including neighboring North Dakota. Washington state records voter participation in partisan presidential primaries but retains the information for only a couple of months, and only at the county level, before purging the data, according to L2.Washington consistently shows up in migration data as a former home state of new Montanans. There are 10 states with party information practices like Washington’s.Thirty-one states collect and report party information on voters. Paul Westcott of L2 explains that to identify movers, analysts look at a mover’s current voter file and compare it to national change-of-address data from the U.S. Postal Service. When a voter moves within a state, L2 records the relocation. When a voter moves out of state, analysts wait until that voter appears in the voter file of the new state before noting the change, at which point the voter’s information from the previous state also makes the trip in L2’s records.Campaign operatives have attempted to determine the political leanings of voters new to Montana for several years. One Republican campaign veteran told Capitolized that interest in the voting habits of newcomers peaked after Montana’s 2020 U.S. Senate election. Polls in that cycle consistently indicated that incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines held a slight advantage over challenger Steve Bullock, then Montana’s second-term Democratic governor. A narrow win was expected, but Daines then won the race by 10 percentage points.Similarly, public polls on Montana’s U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy show the number of voters identifying as independent as greater than, or on par with, the number of voters identifying as Democrats. —Tom LuteyCAMPAIGN CASES CLOSED Montana’s election for governor has sparked several complaints to the Montana Commissioner of Political Practices, both from political parties and the campaign staffs of incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte and Democratic challenger Ryan Busse. When COPP makes a decision on those complaints, we’ll report that decision in Capitolized. ABOUT THOSE TAX REBATE MAILERSFirst up is a complaint by Busse For Montana agent Emily Harris. Harris in July filed an ethics complaint against Gov. Greg Gianforte and his campaign manager Jake Eaton.Eaton owns a printing company, Ultra Graphics, that printed cards mailed by the Montana Department of Revenue informing Montana property owners that a property tax rebate, signed into law by Gianforte in 2023, was available for eligible Montana homeowners, who would have to apply to receive the rebate. A sharp property tax increase in 2023 has been a key campaign issue in the governor’s race. Harris alleged that the mailers were political communications. Commissioner Chris Gallus dismissed the complaint six days after Harris filed it. “The activity described is permitted as an official duty and Governor Gianforte did not use or permit the use of government resources or funds to support his campaign or election,” Gallus said in the ruling.FIXABLE AND DISMISSABLEGallus also ruled Sept. 20 on a complaint against Busse filed by the Montana Republican Party, which alleged reporting errors in Busse’s campaign finance reports filed in October 2023 and this spring. The October 2023 report didn’t include a $20,000 debt owed to “Left Hook” for ad production expenses. The report also didn’t include $493.91 owed to Arron Murphy Consulting for printing and five debts owed to Busse for $664.85 in mileage. Those details were included in an amended report filed in January. Separately, the Montana GOP alleged that the Busse campaign’s use of his wife Sara Busse’s advertising company, Aspen Communications, was a misuse of funds. Gallus dismissed the complaint as “frivolous.”“Montana law does not prohibit the Busse campaign from engaging the professional services of a vendor in which he or his spouse have a financial interest,” Gallus ruled. COPP found that what Aspen charged the campaign wasn’t discounted, meaning it didn’t amount to a contribution. In June the state GOP filed another complaint, this time alleging that money paid to Left Hook for a spring TV ad buy and to vendor Blue Deal for signs weren’t “described in sufficient detail to disclose the services performed.”In both the Left Hook and Blue Deal  instances, the Busse campaign reported the expenses correctly, Gallus ruled. In the end, Gallus ruled in favor of Busse on five issues: Aspen was properly employed. The descriptions of services by Left Hook and Blue Deal were adequate. Busse’s September 2023 travel expenditures, reported in January, were compliant.  The Busse campaign didn’t have to report the use of Busse’s home for a campaign event, or drinks and food related to the event.There were four violations that won’t be prosecuted because Busse took corrective action.The Busse campaign didn’t timely report debts owed for a campaign video.  The Busse campaign didn’t report a debt owed for printed envelopes.  The Busse campaign didn’t adequately describe travel expenses. The Busse campaign didn’t timely report an in-kind contribution of food and beverages for a campaign event. Additionally, Gallus ruled that prosecution would be avoided if action is taken to describe payments to Murphy for envelopes, name tags and consulting fees and report additional detail on the $20,000 ad buy and $1,500 printing reimbursement, as well as two separate months of consulting fees. —Tom LuteyON BACKGROUNDThere will be a debate between Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte and challenger Ryan Busse after several contentious weeks of negotiations.  In September 2023, MTFP reported on the launch of the Busse campaign, including the TV ad at the heart of the Sept. 20 COPP ruling. The tax rebate at the core of the Busse team’s complaint against Gov. Gianforte and Jake Eaton was signed into law in March 2023.The post More Republican voters are moving to Montana than Democrats appeared first on Montana Free Press.