As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC 9) remains disorganized, but it is gradually strengthening as it moves northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico. The system currently lacks a well defined center – thanks in part to southwesterly shear currently limiting development. Conditions are forecast to improve with shear decreasing just as the storm taps into the warm waters of the Gulf. This will likely lead to rapid intensification with the storm forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday and a major hurricane before landfall over the Florida Panhandle Thursday. Watches and Warnings: Hurricane Watch for the FL Gulf Coast Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba, Mexico and Grand Cayman Islands Storm Surge Watch for the FL Gulf Coast Impacts: Rainfall 4-8 inches of rain over western Cuba & the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals up to 12 inches 3-6 inches of rain over the southeast with up to 10 inches isolated totals possible Storm Surge 10-15 feet of surge possible for the Florida Gulf Coast Wind Hurricane force wind possible along the Florida Panhandle and West Gulf Coast by late Wednesday – Thursday Tropical Storm force winds could reach as far inland as the Carolinas after landfall Local Impacts: Flash Flooding A stalled front west of the region will help funnel tropical moisture into the region beginning Wednesday This along with rainfall from Helene will lead to totals of 4-6″ near the I-77 corridor with higher totals up to 8″+ for the mountains and foothills Gusty Winds 30-40 mph gusts Bring Down Trees Scattered Power Outages Tornadoes Isolated, Short-Lived and Rain-Wrapped   PREVIOUS UPDATE 9/23 11PM Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is forecast to become Hurricane Helene by the middle of the week. From there, rapid strengthening is possible. Computer models are in good agreement with landfall near Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday, but anyone from Destin, Florida to Tampa, Florida needs to pay very close attention to shifts in the forecast. It is still too soon to pinpoint an exact location for landfall, but impacts will be felt far from the center – especially east of the center. Note: The reason you do not see a 'category 3' on the map is because it is expected to happen between the 60-72 hours shown. CAROLINA IMPACTS: Rain: This will be a big rainmaker for us in the Piedmont… even more so for those in the mountains and western North Carolina. Significant flooding is possible across the mountains on Friday. Wind: It is still too soon to confidently say, but tropical storm force winds (39 – 73 mph) are likely. Outages: With several inches of rain and tropical storm force winds, downed trees and power outages are likely. Tornadoes: With the Carolinas being east of the center, isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. Storm Surge: There will likely be a significant storm surge for some on the west coast of Florida. It is too soon to say how big the surge could be and who will see the worst of it. We have to wait until the storm organizes. PREVIOUS UPDATE 9/23 11 AM Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 remains disorganized but, there is a high liklihood that it will become a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 24-48 hours. Helene is the next name on the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Name List. It is located about 130 miles SSW of Grand Cayman and moving slowly to the north before it is forecast to take a northwest turn in the next few days. It is expected to pass throug hthe Yucatan Channel and enter into the Southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for Mexico and Cuba. The storm will accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf and approach Florida by Thursday. Models are in pretty good agreement with the forecast track, but due to the lack of a well-defined center there remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast. Envirnomental conditions in the Gulf are highly favorable for this storm to intensify. Gulf waters are above 85 degrees, there is plenty of moisture, and shear is relatively low in the Eastern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is anticipating significant strengthening with the storm forecast to become a strong category 2 hurricane by Thursday. Impacts: Rainfall – 4-8 inches for Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated areas up to 12 inches. Heavy rain is expected for the southeast U.S. starting Wednesday with the potential for flash and river flooding. Storm Surge – 2-4 feet for the Southern Coast of Cuba and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind – Tropcial storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday with hurricane conditions possible for areas under the watch by Wednesday.