(WGHP) – Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has formed in the western Caribbean Sea.  This tropical disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or two as it moves northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico. Once a tropical storm, it will be named “Helene”. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have been issued for the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.  By Wednesday morning, as the system moves into the Gulf, it’s forecasted to reach hurricane strength.  Since it will move over the very warm Gulf waters and will be surrounded by factors that will help fuel and strengthen the storm, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a major hurricane making landfall along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. Meteorologists and forecasters have noted that rapid intensification is possible with this system prior to Thursday's landfall. The storm track data has been consistent over the weekend and shows the tropical system making landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast, between the Panhandle and the Big Bend.  However, the entire northeastern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Florida should be keeping a close eye on this system, especially Florida’s west coast.  How could this impact the Triad?  Any impacts from the Triad would occur following a landfall along the Gulf Coast which means we could still see a tropical storm but impacts will be different than along the coast.  While it’s still too early to know the exact timing, the Triad can expect impacts as early as Thursday evening and lasting through Saturday.  The impacts for central North Carolina will likely include gusty winds, heavy rain and even a tornado threat, depending on the track of the tropical system.  As of the 5 p.m. update on Monday, the Triad is forecast to be on the right side of the center of circulation which gives us a slightly better chance to see a low tornado threat on Friday. Data is inconsistent as of Monday for how strong the winds could be in the Triad from this system. However, an early forecast shows sustained winds between 10-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible.  Rainfall totals are also widely varied but between 1.5 inches to 4 inches will be possible.  Rainfall totals and wind speed will depend on the track of the storm. Both wind speeds and rainfall total forecasts will change as we get closer to the end of the week.  What’s controlling the track of the system?  Throughout the past few days, data has been consistent in a specific path for PTC 9. One of the reasons for that has to do with what’s going on in the upper levels of the atmosphere and what’s happening at the surface.  In the upper levels, a high-pressure system will be situated off the southeastern United States with a low-pressure system centered over Missouri and Arkansas.  Since winds around a high-pressure system rotate clockwise and winds around a low-pressure system rotate counterclockwise, there’s a direct path or channel of south winds between the two that’s helping “steer” PTC 9 into the Gulf of Mexico and in between the two pressure systems.  At the same time, at the surface, a low-pressure system with a cold front is helping steer the system toward the East Coast.  This is because winds behind a cold front typically come from the northwest so the surface winds are also helping direct the tropical system towards the northeastern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States.