More Republicans are warning that the election of Kamala Harris as president could lead to World War III. Republicans further assert that a Trump presidency would eliminate that threat.   Their so-called reasoning is that if Trump had won in 2020, the Gaza War would never have started and the Ukraine conflict would have been resolved. People are entitled to their opinions, regardless of reality. But facts are different.   In the case of those who see the likelihood of global war as possible, their argument goes like this: China is flexing its economic might as it embarks on a major military buildup, and its president, Xi Jinping, has reportedly directed his military to “be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.” Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons against NATO if it allows Ukraine to use Western systems to attack deeply into Russia or intervenes in the fight in some form. The war in Gaza is expanding to Lebanon. Iran is increasing its malign terrorist and cyber activities.   All that is true, but a deeper inspection is needed. The use of thermonuclear weapons in a world war cannot be discounted. Thermonuclear weapons are 1,000 times more powerful than nuclear weapons. Extinction of much of society would follow in America, Europe and Russia. As leaders of the U.S., Russia and China have maintained, nuclear war must never be fought and can never be won. Since a global war risks becoming a nuclear war, deterrence will work. China will not have the thousands of ships and small craft and hundreds of thousands of troops needed to launch a direct amphibious assault on Taiwan by 2027. But it has other, non-military options, from economic blockade to regime change from within. Despite Putin’s threats, Russia does not have the ability to launch a conventional attack west against NATO. In every category other than tactical nuclear weapons, NATO has overwhelming military superiority over Russia. Five other wars in the Middle East — those of 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973 and the 1982 invasion of Lebanon — did not escalate globally. Iran’s malign activities, especially cyber, are also nothing new. Thus, if an objective, fact-based analysis is made, no matter how dangerous conditions may appear superficially, no evidence is forthcoming that suggests a world war looms. War by accident or miscalculation is a different issue. We have read “The March of Folly.” The closest the U.S. and USSR came to nuclear war was not the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, but a relatively obscure NATO exercise called Able Archer in 1983 that almost led to disaster. Moscow erroneously thought NATO was launching a first strike when it was not. As for those who maintain that in a second Trump term, neither the war in Gaza nor the invasion of Ukraine would have taken place, history is an unkind referee. The disastrous Afghan withdrawal is cited as the basis for convincing Hamas and Russia that a Biden administration would tolerate or appease any aggressive action on their part. The Trump administration signed the Doha Accords in 2019 with the Taliban promising to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021, provided the Taliban did not attack Americans. The Afghan government was not present. Trump ordered a complete U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in December 2020. That order was not followed. Nor was his invitation to the Taliban to join him at Camp David on Sept. 11, 2019. The accord was regarded as “erratic” by National Security Advisor John Bolton and so distasteful that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to sign it, directing negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad to that duty. Had Trump been in office, the U.S. would still have withdrawn. And while that proved to be a disaster, it could have happened to Trump. One of the achievements of the Trump administration was the Abraham Accords, which brought Israel and the Gulf states closer ultimately leading to mutual recognition with Saudi Arabia. Iran could not tolerate that happening. Oct. 7, ensured recognition was on hold. Whether Trump was president or not, Putin would still likely have invaded Ukraine. Putin expected to seize control of Kyiv, and thus, Ukraine, within days. Whoever was U.S. president made no difference. History and facts count. Since they do, crying “ready, fire, aim” may be a bit premature. Let’s look more closely before predicting a looming world war. Harlan K. Ullman, Ph.D., is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD:  How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon.