Three things on my mind as Bills fans take the long wait towards a Monday night home date in week three... Edge of Opportunity The Jags offensive line is no bueno. Very much so, in fact. Pro Football Focus rated them 30th in the NFL or third from the bottom. Only four teams allowed more than their seven sacks through two weeks. It gets even worse for Jacksonville on the edges. Cam Robinson is the long time starting left tackle and is generally well respected. On the other side is former first round pick Anton Harrison, who struggled as a rookie in 2023 and somehow has been noticeably worse this year. In week one, the Dolphins got sacks from three different edge rushers: somewhat ancient Emmanuel Ogbah, 78 year-old Calais Campbell (he's actually 38) and Jaelen Phillips in his first game on a new Achilles. The Browns got a sack against the Jags from Myles Garrett in week two and he does that to almost everyone, but Cleveland added two more from outside backer Jordan Hicks and D-end Alex Wright. All that means a big opportunity for Greg Rousseau and Von Miller to continue the hot start for Bills edge rushers. They've got five sacks in two games and it might be imperative that number grows. Trevor Lawrence can still play, despite an uneven career in Jacksonville. Either Rousseau and Miller make Lawrence nervous or he'll make the Bills nervous. Exorcising Demons Speaking of making the Bills nervous, what the bleep is it about Buffalo and the Jags the last few years? Buffalo has lost the last two against Jacksonville. The Bills were a 5.5 point favorite last year in London. They were a two touchdown favorite in Florida back in 2021. Ed Oliver used the term "weird" to describe those games no less than EIGHTEEN times during one press conference this week. He even went so far as to address the rest of the defensive line specifically about the weird-ness against Jacksonville and that they should be on the lookout for... whatever. I think the unsettling nature of the last two Jacksonville losses is a perfect way to keep Buffalo's attention this week. For the last 11 days, the Bills have had bouquets tossed at their feet in admiration of the way they demolished the Dolphins. It would have been easy--or even normal-- to get a little fat and happy dining out on all the love from the football world. It's an obvious recipe for a football team to come out flat. There's no guarantee the Bills still won't be a bit rusty after the longest possible break between regular season games without the normal getaway routine of bye. Being on alert for Jacksonville sorcery should go a long way towards having the guys in red and blue ready to go Monday night. New Name, Same Pain Oliver made the point during his rant on Bills v Jaguars weirdness that these two teams recently played a 9-6 game. He shook his head in disbelief that such a score could be the final of a real, live NFL game in the 21st century. There's a good reason for that type of final. It's called Josh Hines-Allen. The artist formerly known as the "other Josh Allen" pretty much wrecked that game for Buffalo all by himself. He finished with a sack, a recovered fumble and an interception. Josh Allen intercepting Josh Allen was, to Oliver, the surest sign that other worldly forces have been at work in this rivalry. The Hines name addition is a tribute to Hines-Allen's maternal family. It's fitting because he and Buffalo's Josh Allen are both excellent enough players to demand individual identification. He didn't hit the stat sheet in the London game, but only because a roughing the passer penalty wiped out a third down sack. Hines-Allen had 17 sacks last year. He's in the category of pass rushers who can single-handedly change a game. The Bills better have an answer for him. Betting Things Off to a 2-0 start after cashing the easiest bet of the Bills season. Tyreek Hill has still never topped 90 yards in a regular season game against Buffalo and stayed well under his 97.5 yard line last week. I'm now in the black for 1.9 units. We're going to try and ride Jacksonville's pass game struggles this week. The aforementioned offensive line is obviously a big problem. Lawrence has completed barely more than 50% of his passes this year (26 for 51). Top receiver Christian Kirk averaged five catches for 65 yards per game during his first two seasons with the Jags. He has two catches and 29 yards total so far this year. Lawrence has thrown for 220 and 162 yards in his first two games this year. Outside of Lawrence, passing is down all over the NFL. Defenses are working hard to prevent the big play and begging teams to run the ball. Not only do offenses choose run over pass more often, all those running plays shorten games. There are less possessions on top of less passes. Both QBs in this game should require that type of defensive gameplan. The most generous passing yards line I can find for Lawrence is 226.5 at FanDuel. I'm going to take the under at -113. Fair warning: Lawrence was over that line in 10 of his 16 games last year, including 315 yards against the Bills. Even without a number of injured starters, I'll trust the way Sean McDermott has his defense playing over the way Doug Pederson is operating Jacksonville's offense. The Pick The Jags are whole lot closer to a 2-0 start than you might think. Travis Etienne was two yards from walking into the end zone for a touchdown that would have put Jacksonville up 24-7 in Miami week one before fumbling. The Jags bounced a field goal off an upright week two against Cleveland that would have left them tied late with the Browns. There are still plenty of good pieces in Jacksonville. Evan Engram won't play at tight end, but Etienne is a strong two-way threat out of the backfield. Bills fans know all about Gabe Davis, but his resume does include the occasional two-touchdown, 150 yard game. And we all know he'll be ready for bear. Brian Thomas, Jr. is having a solid start to his rookie season with 141 yards receiving and a touchdown already. All that said, the Jags still seem like a team on the verge of collapse. The Bills are going the other direction, building in confidence. A new starter on the defense is now just a weekly thing in Buffalo. Baylon Spector wasn't a starter week one for a reason, but he still showed plenty of athleticism playing three-quarters of a game last week in Miami. He even ran with Tyreek Hill on a couple of snaps. Not having to deal with Engram is a good break for the Bills, but I'd feel pretty good about this defensive back seven anyway after the performance against the Dolphins. Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford are a tough, no-nonsense pair of corners. Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin are, so far, a competent safety duo. And if the Bills pass rush can take advantage of the weaknesses Jacksonville has up front, it only makes things easier on the beat-up back end. James Cook took the burden of the offense in Miami for the second time in the last six Buffalo regular season games. It's continued proof he can do it again. And if all else fails, the Bills still have original flavor Josh Allen. Neither of the last two "weird" games against Jacksonville were in Buffalo. This one will be. The NFL has been 18 ways of weird so far this year, so Oliver's warning should not go unheeded. I'll still take the logical path and pick the Bills 30-21.