NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — The northwestern Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are being closely monitored for potential tropical development next week. Tropical Storm Likely to Form Soon A broad area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are favorable for this system to strengthen, and it will likely develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next few days as it moves northward toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Later this week, it is expected to move north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, so residents along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also keep an eye on it. The chance of formation in the next 48 hours is 50%, while the chance over the next 7 days is 80%. Disagreement Among Forecast Models Some forecast models predict a strong tropical system, likely a hurricane, making landfall along the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. Several models are in agreement with the storm hitting the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend region, but landfall is still possible anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. It's important to note model projections are likely to fluctuate significantly between different models and from one update to the next until the system's center of circulation actually forms. Forecast models will likely have a better idea of what to expect by late Monday or Tuesday. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system to collect data tomorrow. What is the Central American Gyre? The Central American Gyre (CAG) is a large, slow-rotating area of low pressure that forms over Central America and the surrounding waters of the western Caribbean and eastern Pacific. It typically develops during the late spring and again in the early fall, during the Atlantic hurricane season. It is known for producing widespread thunderstorms and heavy rain, sometimes leading to flooding and landslides in the region. The CAG can act as a "seed" for development of tropical systems by creating areas of enhanced thunderstorm activity and rotation. Under favorable conditions such as warm ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and abundant moisture, these areas can develop into tropical depressions or storms. Depending on steering currents, any system that forms within the gyre can move into the Atlantic or Pacific, making the CAG a key feature to monitor for potential tropical cyclone formation, especially from late May through June and from late September through October. Stay Updated Be sure to monitor forecasts from official sources like the National Hurricane Center and trusted media outlets over the next few days. Now is a good time to review hurricane preparedness plans and refresh supplies, but there is no immediate concern for Gulf Coast residents. Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter. Latest Posts Tropical system likely to make landfall on Gulf Coast as a hurricane. Here's what we know so far. Saints' offense stalls out during a punishing clash with the Eagles Fall has arrived: Here's what to know about the autumnal equinox REPORT: LSU LB Harold Perkins out for the year What are 'smart vapes' and how are they targeting kids?