HONOLULU (KHON2) - A surface ridge far north of the islands will drive moderate trade winds through tomorrow, and instability produced by an upper- level low will generate briefly heavy showers. The upper-level low remains centered just north of Kauai and Oahu this afternoon and will creep west slowly over the next couple of days. This feature has weakened and elevated the inversion over most of the island chain and is producing high lapse rates above 15,000 ft close to the core of the low. However, with no organized areas of moisture expected through Monday, an increase in widespread rainfall is unlikely. As a result, expect the locally scattered showers moving along the trades to be briefly heavy. Afternoon sea breezes in sheltered areas will generate spotty showers, some heavy, across leeward terrain, with some showers lingering into the evening. So far, rainfall has not been significant, but there is some potential for some minor flooding concerns over leeward Big Island each afternoon and evening. A stronger and more stable trade wind flow will develop on Tuesday. The locally breezy trades will be driven by a tighter pressure gradient between the strengthening low-level ridge to the north and a pair of tropical disturbances passing several hundred miles south of the islands. The upper-level low will fill and drift away to the west, and a ridge aloft building in from the east will bring stability. Through the rest of the work week, expect typical windward rainfall for most islands, though windward Big Island may be brushed with some deeper tropical moisture Wednesday night through Thursday night.