ROCHESTER, NY (WROC) - Happy Independence Day! Our 4th of July has been quiet thus far, despite mostly cloudy skies lingering. There's an argument to be made that cloud cover has been beneficial, helping keep heat at bay and by association, instability values. The end result has been an afternoon free of rain of any consequence. Heading to the lake this weekend? While shoreline water temperatures often vary greatly, average Lake Ontario water temps are currently running in the middle 60s. This is slightly cooler than climatological average for the 4th of July. pic.twitter.com/kqIClAJCIL— Eric Snitil (@EricSnitilWx) July 4, 2024 It appear unlikely appreciable rain will develop this evening, highlighted by a general lack of forcing. That said, we can't completely rule out a random light shower this evening and into the night. The overall chance for rain continues to run no higher than 30%. Much of Friday falls in a similar basket with mixed skies and temperatures surging back into the 80s. A warm front will approach later in the day, placing the region in the warm sector of a system to our west. This should support at least some risk for rain and thunderstorms to erupt. The overall environment isn't particularly impressive with regard to severe weather, but it's enough to warrant at least a limited threat a few warnings could flare. Strong wind would likely be the issue to watch. To be clear, there is ZERO risk for severe weather in WNY today/tonight. Independence Day festivities should be just fine, shy of a random passing light shower. Late Friday, storms could try and get frisky. Overall, the risk for severe weather appears limited but not zero. pic.twitter.com/mne6PbQK86— Eric Snitil (@EricSnitilWx) July 4, 2024 By the weekend, leftover rain appears unlikely with sunshine returning. Highs both weekend days will remain comfortably in the 80s.