As we head toward the last day of November tomorrow, Mother Nature may give us a last day of November snow, and perhaps, it may be more than just a casual amount for parts of the area. Snow is expected to develop before daybreak tomorrow and my concern is that one or two bands of snow may overachieve and give someone out there a decent accumulation (over 2" worth). These first snows, for whatever reason, are sort of tricky. Roads may get slick where the heavier snows fall, and while the emphasis may be more toward the east of the metro, I still have my concerns about how this plays out in Kansas City proper. But, why? Because things will be sort of developing on top, or nearby, the KC area. So if something comes together toward daybreak or to our west, it may be a bit more problematic in terms of how much we get. After tomorrow morning, the snow will move away and the colder air will settle in for a few more days before we moderate a bit toward the middle of next week. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Forecast: Today: Sunny with increasing temperatures later this afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 30s Tonight: Clouds lower and thicken. Some light snow is possible toward daybreak. Lows in the mid to upper 20s Tomorrow: Snow is possible in the morning. Accumulations of a dusting to 1" for most of the metro, with higher totals towards central Missouri of 1-4" possible in some bands Sunday: Sunny and cold. Lows near 15° in the morning and around 32° in the afternoon. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Discussion: There is still a big discrepancy in the models as they are trying to figure out how the bands of snow, which should develop towards daybreak, come together and how strong they are. I don't have a great feeling about this, and I'm worried that this may be more of a bigger snow in the metro than what I'm currently forecasting. Or at least there is an upside that shows I'm not trying to sweep under the rug. My concerns, in part, are because I'm seeing a weird spring-like setup in the models just above the surface. That is a low-level jet stream poking right at us tomorrow morning. IF this was the spring, it would be the set-up for thunderstorms. This set-up tonight and tomorrow is sort of maximized toward daybreak on top of the KC area on some of the model data out this morning. IF this was the springtime or even summer, we would be concerned about thunderstorms developing on top of, or near, the metro before daybreak. But since the air is so much colder, the focus will be on potential bands of snow to develop. Where bands these bands of snow actually form is usually the struggle because there is the potential of some higher-end totals (over 3"). But where they don't really form, the amounts may be considerably lower or none at all. I can see the models fighting this in their output this morning. That is what makes me nervous. I fear something bigger is happening out there than what is being talked about. For example this morning the NAM model had this for snowfall output: Note the sharp cutoff near the I-70 corridor. That would be a BIG problem, and a 4-8" snow for areas just northeast of the metro. Even the north side of KC is in roughly a 2-4" swath with flurries on the south side. The GFS has something similar, but not to that extent. Again, it's trying to see these banded snows (which these models aren't too great at). The Canadian... Again, trying to see these bands. And the overnight run of the EURO... It's important to note that the GFS ensembles, which is a blend of about 30 models with different outcomes, has lower totals in the metro with higher totals towards central Missouri. This was roughly my forecast last night with 1-4" potential toward central Missouri and eastwards, and lighter totals in the metro. The morning run of the HRRR model gave us nothing at all, really. Maybe some flurries. The HRRR model would typically do better with this, and part of the reason why is that it shunts the winds above us more west to east faster. Take a look at the comparison of two models. The morning run of the NAM model and the HRRR model. This is for the wind field around 5,000 feet. Notice where the winds are poking toward! That would be the area of the best lift. Now the HRRR model. Notice the difference in where the winds are poking towards. This is for 6 a.m. Saturday. That difference is the issue, I think. That's the key to flurries or 4+" of snow in the metro. Another complicator to this is that it really isn't an organized storm coming in aloft. It's basically a series of weak disturbances that are broken up into pieces which isn't a confidence builder for big totals. There is also a LOT of dry air ahead of these features that is going to need to be overcome initially. So, IF the forcing or lift is weak in spots, the dry air is going to be a bigger factor in chewing away at the falling flakes. But because there are a series of disturbances coming through to perhaps locally enhance these areas of lift, that dry air can be overcome I think. In a sense, and perhaps to bring this home, I think about a cup of marbles and then turn that cup over on top of a table, all those marbles go in different directions and at different speeds. Ahead of each marble, there's "lift" in the atmosphere, and behind each one, the air sinks. In the weather world, we know the marbles are going to travel sort of from the west-northwest to the east-southeast. So that helps a bit, but we don't know how many marbles there are or where exactly they are going. We have a broad idea but not a precise idea and that too is an issue. Oh, and there may be some bigger marbles in there compared to smaller marbles that affect things differently in the atmosphere. So you can see how things can go off the rails... So what am I thinking right now? I think the NAM is too aggressive with its snow output. I may increase the metro's snowfall from a dusting to 2" or so (up from 1") in the late shows tonight, and by then I'll have the last model runs to hopefully confirm, or not, that thought process. I still think there may be some 2-4" totals towards central Missouri. Again, Mizzou fans, pay attention to that tomorrow morning if you plan to make that drive. Alex will have that information for you. I think the other model runs have a chance of being more accurate in this case... I'm bothered by the HRRR model, and a few others giving us next to nothing. Again, I see why they are so negative on snow here, and they may end up correct, but I'm not going to let my guard down at this point. I'll get a video update out around 6:15 p.m. on fox4kc.com and another late-night update around 11 p.m. or so on the website. We have basketball and football tonight so no early newscasts and our late news is delayed 30-45 minutes to somewhere in the 10:30-11 p.m. range. So it's a good thing and a bad thing. I'll be curious to see if we see the HRRR model capitulate or if the other data capitulate to it. Jerry Keeney has the feature photo of the day today from Smithville Lake. There is the potential for a blog tomorrow depending on the snow situation. Joe